DEVILS vs RED WINGS | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #17

Hey everyone,

After taking a 3-2 lead in the third period, unfortunately, the Devils let the game slip away on Saturday, losing 5-3 in a “four-point” divisional game against NYR. Jack said it himself, “That's a game really good teams win…and we're not there right now.”

I’ll show and break down some video examples of the two (3-3 & 4-3) third-period goals the Devils allowed during tonight’s pregame show. Jack was also right in saying that, although the team has plenty of runway, they need to ‘sharpen up’ and start getting back to their level of play from last season. Well, what better time to sharpen up and get back to a dominant brand of Devils hockey than in Detroit? Last season, the Devils flew into DET on Oct. 25, carrying a .500 PTS%; a similarly tough start to the season.

If you recall, Devils fans, the 6-2 win in DET that night served as a major catalyst: it was the first of the 13-game winning streak. Furthermore, there happens to be a near-parallel scenario emerging, too. The Devils' upcoming schedule has a set of home games on the weekend after the Detroit game (one being against CBJ), and a western-Canada road trip not too long thereafter. We hear Jack and others talk about getting back to last season’s stride. Well, someone in that room needs to say, “Hey, remember what we were able to start after taking a W out of this building last season! And we have this similar stretch of upcoming games. Let's get a heater going!”

As for the second game in DET last season (Jan. 4), the Devils came in playing their worst hockey of the year, losers in 9 of the prior 11 GP. Once again, they beat the Red Wings by four goals, then got steaming hot, picking up points in 10 of the next 12 GP!
I hope, similarly to my optimistic patterns coming through in PIT (PK dominance, shorthanded goals, strong goaltending, & Bratter GWG!), that history repeats itself with a win in DET that kick-starts a successful stretch of Devils' hockey ahead!The Red Wings are fresh off dropping both games at the NHL's Global Series event in Sweden, losing 5-4 in OT and 3-2 in regulation to the Senators and Maple Leafs, respectively. So, in their first game back tonight, you bet they'll be looking for a big response. Based on last season's Global Series in Finland, featuring NSH, SJS, CBJ, & COL, teams are either red hot... or hot garbage in their return to North America!
For the Devils' sake, hopefully, they can put DET on the NSH/SJS end of the spectrum, as those two teams combined for a 1-8-1 record in each of their next 5 GP! As for CBJ/COL, they came back with a solid 7-2-1 merged record through each of their next 5 GP. Only COL ended up with a playoff berth after it was all said and done.
Be sure to join Erika and me at 6:30 PM for our pregame show on MSGSN2, as we further discuss Saturday's loss and Jack's comments, preview the importance of the next 5 games, and highlight the strong recent contributions of Lazar and Miller.

Lastly, I want to express my excitement for a couple of pieces of terrific NJD news. First, my congratulations to Sarge, Sergei Brylin, on his well-deserved accolade as the second "Ring of Honor" inductee for the franchise! Second, it was great to see Captain Nico return to practice this week and make the trip to DET. Although he won't play tonight, hopefully, the Captain is eyeballing a return on Friday at the Rock.
-Sal
First, analyzing the Red Wings' offense, this is a team ranked #18 in expected goals but scoring at the #7 actual rate in the NHL; meaning they're executing significantly high on the league average volume rate of chances, scoring 0.38 goals above expected per game. On a positive note for the Devils defensively, DET is not generating many shots from the slot or inner slot (ranked #25 & #23, respectively), with each of those rates down when playing at home, and, down even lower over the last 5 games. Their rush chances, in the same boat, are being generated at the #26 rate per game in the NHL. Likely, the most important offensive stat on this graphic is that their High-Danger Chances per game rate is the #10 highest in the NHL. So, a good portion of the overall chances that this team is generating are from the high-danger areas — and they’re burying them. This is a quality-over-quantity offense that will take advantage of structural breakdowns and make you pay if you get caught sleeping. So, again, it's been the excellent execution by DET on their limited chance volumes so far this season as their generation rate in some key categories is not very high, yet they’re still scoring at the #7 highest rate in the league.As for DET’s defense, this is, essentially, the polar opposite of the offense when it comes down to expected goals against vs. actual goals allowed. In terms of HD Chances per game, they’re defending decently well, trending towards the top ten of the NHL, conceding the #13 lowest rate in the league; their actual goals-against rate, however, is ranked #21. For me, that likely points fingers at their goaltending, which I'll get into below. To be fair, it could also mean that when the team is defending these chances, there is loose defensive structure and coverage.

The fact that DET is giving up the #5 lowest rate of inner shots per game tells me that they’re doing a great job of protecting the house, but it seems that they’re getting exposed in an area where the Devils excel: that being in the high volume of rush chances (#7 most) they're conceding each game (NJD is #3 in Rush Chances For/GP). So, they're relatively weak in defending those entries coming in (again, a good thing for the Devils!). On the other hand, when a puck is dumped into DET's DZ, and teams go into their forechecking routes (NJD is #9 in Forecheck Chances For/GP), DET is clearly making great reads and breakout plays, as they’re conceding the #2 fewest chances off the forecheck per game. In the end, nothing should change in NJD's process tonight: hopefully, the Red Wings are slow to keep up in the track meet the Devils' rush game will bring in this matchup. In a similar fashion to the Devils, DET's team goaltending hasn't exactly done him any favors so far this season. Their goals saved above expected, as a whole, rank them #23 in the NHL; their Slot SV% #23; and their Inner Slot SV% #24 (NJD is #28, #26, & #28 in each of those categories). So, yes, this is a Red Wings team that is conceding low volumes of inner slot and forecheck chances against (top 5 in both categories) and has been structurally sound defensively. But, these save percentages, which draw easy comparisons to the Devils', show how crucial inconsistent goaltending can be. Detroit is giving up 3.35 goals per game, a rate that is up over 19% (4.0 GA/GP) over their last 5 contests. Lyon, who is expected to start between the pipes for DET, is yet to defeat the Devils in three career appearances (all with PHI). Granted, he hasn't faced the Devils since 2021, but he does have a .786 SV% and a 4.08 GAA in that sample set. Based on the way these two teams are trending, tonight could very well be a high-scoring affair. It needs to be a complete 5v5 effort from the Devils in all three zones, whether the goaltending is 'on' or not!