We officially made it, Devils fans!!! It’s finally playoff game day in Raleigh, and our MSG crew is here and fired up to have full coverage of this first-round series vs. CAR. I mean, how could you not be fired up for playoff hockey?!?!
Goaltending
Now, I want to preface this article by saying that I think this series is going to be a lot closer than people think. A lot of people have Carolina sweeping the Devils or winning in five games, but I think there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about NJD’s ability to win this series. At the end of the day, nothing is more important in the playoffs than your goaltender. For the Devils, it’s fair to say they have the edge over the Canes in this category, and that could be a massive X-Factor in this series. Looking at the graphic below, the Devils — between Marky, Jake, and Dawsy — were around or inside the top 10 in every major goaltending category, including Goals Saved Above Expected. Getting the timely saves you’ve gotten all season long will be huge, and you’re going to need your goaltenders to control some of the momentum within each game. Meaning, if Carolina is hemming you in your own zone for a few shifts consecutively, especially in the 2nd period with the long change, you will need your goaltender to get you a few whistles by freezing the puck, allowing you to get off the ice and killing their momentum.
For me, where the Devils also have an advantage is in their goaltenders’ ability to come out and stop some of those rimmed-in pucks, then make a clean, successful outlet pass to help their D or forwards exit the zone. This will not only prevent the Canes from establishing their dominant forecheck (CAR has scored the 3rd most goals off the FC this season), but also slow down some of that wear and tear of taking so many hits as a defenseman. 
Defensive Keys
Yes, Carolina is an extremely dominant team in their ability to wear you down in your own zone with their forechecking game (#1 NHL), cycle game (#2 NHL), and overall puck possession time (#3 NHL). They overwhelm you with the high volume of shots they throw at the net from all areas of the ice, including the slot (#3 NHL) and HD inner slot (#4 NHL).
If you're the Devils, you are going to have to weather that storm (...pun intended!) by defending hard, ending plays quickly, retrieving pucks, and getting into the skating lanes of Carolina to prevent them from getting to the middle of the ice. In the regular season, overall, the Devils were in the top 10 defending in many key categories, as shown below. The only area that is a bit of a concern is their ability to handle forechecking pressure (#19 NHL). It's not going to be an easy task to win Game 1, with CAR having last change and their home crowd behind them, but you can get the job done by focusing on defending first as you settle in.
Offensive Keys
Carolina is also an elite team when it comes to defending, meaning 5v5 offense will not come any easier than it did in the second half of the season for the Devils. Their man-on-man coverage puts an overwhelming amount of pressure on teams, and when you combine that with the fact that they spend most of the game with the puck on their stick, it's why they ultimately concede the lowest rate of OZ Possession Time of any team.
A potential silver lining here is that CAR’s goaltending at 5v5 has also been bottom 10 in the NHL, which might be a vulnerability that the Devils can exploit in this series. In order to put pressure on their goaltenders, though, the Devils are going to need to bring their speed and capitalize on their ability to get to the inside. Chance generation is going to start with their rush game (#10 NHL), executing their dominant forecheck to create chances (#4 NHL), winning your one-on-one battles, holding onto pucks (#25 NHL), and pulling CAR away from their net.
Once you get those chances, you have to be able to rely on your retrievals to get those second/third chances and extend OZ time. If you’re Carolina, playing aggressive man-on-man coverage takes a toll on your energy throughout the game and certainly over the course of a 7-game series. The Devils should be able to use this to their advantage (especially in the 2nd period), by using this process to out-change the Canes and get the connectivity shift-to-shift that HC Keefe talks about being prominent when the Devils have their A-Game.
Power Play
Another advantage the Devils have coming into this series is their PP, which remained top 3 all season despite the injuries to Jack and Dougie. Having Dougie back only helps push things over the edge that much more, as you now have two elite QB options. Yes, Carolina has the #1 PK this season, and the fact that their goaltending has been top 5 on the PK is a big reason for that. But if AC Jeremy Colliton can find a way to do what he’s done all season —tweaking and adjusting the PP on the go — it could be the difference maker in the series, as scoring PP goals will crush one of CAR's main strengths.
Penalty Kill
If you’re the Devils, you have to be licking your chops at the fact that CAR’s PP has struggled to find consistency this season, but it can’t get overly confident. Your PK, which is right behind CAR at #2, has to be ready to execute a big kill as soon as their name is called in this series. The absolute last thing you want in this series is to give CAR’s PP any sort of hope.
Closing Thoughts
I threw a lot at you, Devils fans! But bottom line is that, if this team can go on the road, execute some of these keys, and steal at least one of the two games in Raleigh, I’ll feel really good about their chances to win this series in 6 or 7 games. Time now to focus on surviving the first 5 minutes of Game 1!!!!
Don’t miss our pregame show this afternoon, as Rachel and I deep dive into these keys to the series, with some video examples to break down as well, before we get set for puck drop in Game 1. It all starts at 2:30 p.m. on MSGSN!
Let’s Go Devils!!!
-Sal
