Here are my quick hits from the Devils’ 5-3 W over MTL heading into the NYI game tonight:
1st Period
In my last article, and in the pregame show leading up to the game, I talked about how important it would be for the Devils to dictate the MTL game right from the onset, as A) they were playing against a desperate Habs team that was trying to avoid a 5-game losing streak and were historically 0-5-2 when conceding first entering the game, and B) because the Devils had not had a lead coming out of a first period at home all season entering the game.
Well, what does Jack Hughes do? He comes out on his line’s opening shift, immediately checks the “Start on Time” box, and tells everyone that this is going to be the Jack Hughes Show tonight. Montreal didn’t have the matchups to maintain him, and man, his line was dangerous! Ultimately, the Devils left the opening frame feeling good about their pace; they were out-chancing the Habs 7-3 from the HD inner slot, they were getting timely saves from Marky, and most importantly, they brought that 2-goal lead with them into the room. And, just to reiterate how good of a cushion a 2-goal lead is going into the second period, the Devils have not blown a game in this situation at home since Dec. 8, 2017 — 262 home games ago!
The Jack Hughes Show
Boy, when Jack is going like this, I could go on all day about the way he’s able to control the game. It is truly fun to watch from ice level! Now, a storyline I’m watching develop is the possible evolution of Jack’s offensive game. It’s still only a small sample set, but I think we might be witnessing Jack's buy-in to the message of “playing with offensive structure” that HC Sheldon Keefe has been preaching.
Taking a look at some of Jack's underlying 5v5 metrics in comparison of last season to this season, they are showing us that, while Jack is still possessing the puck at nearly the same controlled rates exiting the D-Zone, he’s now mixing in a higher rate of dump-ins at the O-Zone, as seen above by his Dump-in Rate% being up 8.2 percentage points from last season.
When a player like Jack, who demands so much attention on his entries, starts dumping the puck in at a higher rate, he will keep the opposition honest in their defensive gaps while creating confusion on what Jack might be doing, allowing his linemates to get first touch on the dump ins. Most impressively on this graphic, Jack's 5v5 dump-in recovery rates leading to a scoring chance are up 28.3 percentage points, which tells me that Jack is still continuing to be dangerous even when he dumps in the puck. This last single point alone will keep defending teams up at night; his xGF/20 generation is up 17.5% from last season with his evolving offensive strategy. Like Keefe said in the postgame vs. MTL, don’t get it twisted — Jack’s been playing well for a while now, even if it hasn’t been showing up on the score sheet as much as it should have been.
Again, a sample set needs to be larger than 16 games in order to make any decisive conclusions on whether or not we are seeing an evolution in Jack’s offensive game, but this is definitely something we will track now moving forward! For now, here are some of my comments from Thursday night's postgame show regarding Jack's performance and Pally’s impactful role, playing on a line with 86 & 63.
No Scheduled Wins!
If you’re the Devils, there is absolutely no scheduling your wins this weekend against the Islanders or the Sharks, no matter how weak these teams might look to you on paper. Yes, it would be easy for me to sit here and say, “Hey, the Devils are going to STEAMROLL the Isles tonight with how banged up they are right now!” No, that is not the message for tonight’s game! Sure, at face value, you're going up against a .500 opponent that has been shut out four times and is missing key players in Barzal, Duclair, Pelech, Romanov, and Reilly, but make no mistake about it. This NYI team has won three of their last four games, and you know they’re going to be playing with that wounded animal mentality at home tonight against a division rival. Not to mention, they went into your building and pried 2 PTS out of you just two weeks ago! You need to come out with the same level of desperation you had in the first period of the MTL game. Simple as that!
On tonight's pregame show, Rachel and I will recap the W vs. MTL, revisit the last meeting vs. NYI, discuss the Islander injuries, break down Jack and his line's performance, as well as Siegenthaler and his pairing with Kovacevic. Join us at 7:00 p.m. on MSGSN2!
Let's Go Devils!
-Sal
Here are some graphics from Thursday night's broadcast!
