BRUINS vs DEVILS | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #27

Hey everyone,

I give lots of credit to EDM for their defensive effort against the Devils on Sunday. Quite frankly, I was not expecting the Oilers to take away the middle of the ice that well. Although the Devils left those last 2 PTS on the table, the 3-1-0 trip as a whole was certainly a success and, hopefully, helps re-establish the Devils’ road success in the long-term. As we move ahead to the upcoming homestand (6 of next 7 games at home), the team’s focus now becomes establishing the Prudential Center as a tough building for opposing teams to play in. Yes, the Devils are scoring goals at home (3.67 G/GP — #5 NHL); but they're allowing the visitors to get on the board early and never look back. Things don’t start off easy tonight, as the 18-5-3 Boston Bruins are in town, a team currently scoring the 7th highest rate of road goals per game (3.38). With that level of opposition, though, comes a tremendous opportunity for the Devils to begin feeling much better about their overall play at home. After Saturday night’s game in CBJ, the Devils’ next 5 games are all in New Jersey, with 4 next week alone. The Devils are at a crossroads here with the holiday break coming up. It all starts with a 60-minute effort and 2 PTS tonight!Now, not that anyone is keeping track, but, tonight’s game is also a chance to snap a pretty long drought: the Devils have not defeated the Bruins in regulation at home since Jan. 2, 2017. Cory Schneider's 22-save shutout led the Devils to a 3-0 W that night.

Since that game in January of 2017, the Devils and Bruins have met at Prudential Center on 12 separate occasions. The Devils have only had the lead 3 times; and have not won a single game in regulation (3 Devils Ws, all in OT/SO).

As you’d probably expect, this 12-game regulation winless drought against the Bruins is quite rare these days. Currently, the streak is tied for the 3rd longest active regulation winless skid vs. another franchise in the NHL.

Again, none of the results matter for the 2023-24 season besides the one tonight. Either way, though, go out there and put an end to this dreadful stretch of home games vs. BOS, and, most importantly, kick-start this upcoming homestand with a huge 2 PTS!
For me, what’s interesting about this game is that the Devils, offensively, are a much better team than the Bruins; surpassing them in just about every offensive category this season. The Devils generate more SATs, inner-slot shots, HD Chances, and have a higher rate of expected goals.Even defensively, the Devils are conceding lower rates and are better in terms of most metrics. What it comes down to is the only category that counts, unfortunately, that being the goals against. Even with the Bruins conceding a higher rate of HD chances than the Devils, the Devils are conceding the 2nd most goals per game in the league, whereas Boston is conceding the 3rd fewest.

For the second consecutive season, BOS's penalty kill has been the best in the league, despite being inside the top 10 of penalties taken per game. However, it is no secret that their success as a team points directly to the goaltending. Ullmark and Swayman’s combined Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) is the best in the NHL. Whether it's the reigning Vezina winner or his backup tonight, this tandem is right up there with NYI as the best in the business.Hopefully, tonight does not turn into a continuation of last season’s storyline at home vs. BOS, as the Bruins’ .944 team SV% was the difference; the Devils out-shooting the Bruins 71-50 and losing both games in regulation. Another storyline here that I’m wary of is the Devils once again having trouble getting pucks through to the net against this team, especially with Dougie out of the lineup. Coming into tonight, the Bruins are getting in front of 17.3 opposing shot attempts per game on the road, the NHL's 9th highest rate for that matter.

If you want to look at what frustrated the Devils in their back-to-back set with BOS last December, the Bruins had their highest blocked shots rate in Prudential Center of any venue. They blocked 50 of NJD’s shot attempts during the set, including a season-high 30 blocks on Dec. 23. To properly put those 30 blocked shots on Dec. 23 in perspective, it was not only the Bruins' season-high, but the T-9th highest blocked shots count of the 1,312 total regular season games played in 2022-23.

So, the bottom line is, yes, BOS's goaltenders have the ability to put on a clinic, but, Jim Montgomery’s guys did a tremendous job getting in shooting lanes and weathering the high volumes of NJD SATs last season at the Rock. Let’s hope that none of these storylines carry year over year!
-Sal