DEVILS vs SENATORS | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #34

Hey everyone,

The Devils are in Ottawa tonight to take on the Senators in the first of their back-to-back set (in BOS tomorrow night), which will close out the calendar year. Coming into tonight, the Devils are 6-1-0 in the first half of back-to-backs this season, their only loss in this scenario coming back on Oct. 24 vs. CBJ (2-1 L).

For me, when it comes to tonight's game, special teams are going to be the main focus for the Devils. I'll continue this discussion and show some video examples during tonight's pregame show, but here's a preview of my thoughts on the significant swings for each of the PP and PK over the last 10 games and why they've been occurring.
Let’s start with the PK, which has been stellar lately for the Devils. It's a combination of discipline within their structure and timely saves they're getting that points to why we are seeing a 13.5 percentage point increase in the Devills' PK efficiency over the last 10 GP.

They've been structurally sound, are getting in lanes, and are subsequently blocking passes/shots at a more frequent rate. It's resulting in their slot shots against being reduced by 25% and successful east-west passes against being down about 8 percentage points, all while their goalie Sv% on the PK has jumped from the T-7th worst in the first 23 GP of the season to the 7th best over the last 10 GP. Going into tonight, OTT draws the most penalties per game in the NHL, meaning they skate hard, win their battles, and beat guys to the net consistently to draw penalties. Point being, the Devils’ PK may be busy again tonight. Hopefully, they continue moving these PK trends in the right direction against the Sens’ #23 ranked PP that happens to be scoring a 24% higher rate of Goals/2 min over their last 5 games.As for the Devils’ PP, their process is actually slightly better in terms of successful OZ passes and slot shots that they’re getting off. However, their goals above expected dropping from 0.16 to -0.21 is an indicator that when they go to ultimately pull the trigger on at the end of their PP sequence, it is not being executed anymore. Either the last pass is not being made at the right moment, or, they’re missing wide-open nets, which is being reflected in the mere 2 goals they have over their last 26 PP opportunities.Yes, the Senators are drawing lots of penalties, but they've had trouble staying out of the box themselves. The Sens take the 3rd highest rate of penalties per game in the NHL this season, a rate (3.8 pens/GP) that has even increased by 11.5% over the last 5 games. Tonight could see plenty of opportunities for the Devils to start executing again with the #30 ranked Sens’ PK on the other side of things.
I expect Nico Daws to get his first NHL start since April 16, 2022 (4-3 OTL in SEA). Last season in Utica, Daws posted a 16-14-3 record with a .904 SV% and 2.70 GAA before an off-season hip labrum surgery. He returned on Dec. 8 and has played 3 AHL games this month, going 1-2-0 with an impressive .929 SV% and 2.39 GAA.

For Daws, his 3rd NHL start was in Ottawa back on Feb. 7, 2022 (4-1 L), so, if he does start tonight, a plus is that he will have played in Canada Tire Center before. In the same boat, Daws played a game in all 3 of the upcoming arenas on this trip. Regardless of when his time comes, I look forward to watching Daws get an opportunity to earn NHL time with the Devils. Of course, nobody wanted to see Akira wind up back in Utica this season after his tremendous playoff run, but, this swap could wind up being very beneficial for both goaltenders. We are all rooting for Daws!
The Senators (13-17-0) are currently in last place in the Eastern Conference, 3-7-0 in their last 10 GP. As always, the Devils cannot afford to take a team toward the bottom of the standings for granted. Especially with the Devils headed to one of the league's toughest buildings to play in tomorrow night, that being Boston, the tone and intensity needs to be set from the get-go of this back-to-back.

The Sens' strength is in their offensive execution, as they're scoring at the 7th highest rate on the 20th-ranked expected goal rate. Other than that, they haven't had much success in any other areas of their game, and all of their defensive metrics are trending significantly in the wrong direction over their team's last 5 GP. They are certainly missing Thomas Chabot on the back end, who has been out of the lineup since Dec. 5 and is on IR with a lower-body injury.Joonas Korpisalo is confirmed for OTT between the pipes tonight. Korpi has started 7 games against NJD in his career, going 5-2-0 and putting up a scary-good .934 SV% and 1.85 GAA, both being his personal best against any club he's started 6+ games against (21 teams). Another goalie that, for whatever reason, likes playing against the Devils! Let's hope that changes tonight for Korpisalo.Be sure to join Erika and me on MSGSN2 for our pregame show, starting at 6:30 PM!
-Sal