Hey everyone,
The Devils' effort through the past two games has not been good enough, and they now find themselves staring down the barrel of a possible 3-game losing streak. Surprisingly, this is the first time they have gone consecutive games without a point since their back-to-back losses on Dec. 28 & Dec. 23, 2022, both vs. BOS. Furthermore, the last time the Devils lost three or more successive games in regulation was also in Dec. 2023, when they lost four in a row to CAR, FLA, PHI, and DAL.
Consequently, coach Ruff has brought out the blender, as it appears we will have new-look combinations up and down the entire lineup for tonight's game in WPG.
Most importantly, we’ve also learned that, although Captain Nico still needs time and will not travel, Jack may join the team in Pittsburgh. Talk about a quick recovery!
Ruff's line changes saw Alex Holtz and Luke Hughes move up to the second line and top pair from the fourth line and third pairing, respectively. I want to express my cautious excitement for Holtzy, who will get a shot riding with Toffoli and Mercer on the Devils' second line. After receiving only two shifts in the third period of the WSH game Friday (both on the PP), I'm fascinated to watch how he responds to this sudden promotion after being visibly perplexed when reporters asked why he didn't play much in the 3rd period. This will be a tremendous growth opportunity for Holtz to show Coach Ruff that he made the right decision by moving him up the lineup.
As for Luke, well, this chance to play with Dougie is very intriguing to me. This is about as offensively gifted as a D-pair gets in the NHL. Take a look at their offensive rates already this season in sub-34 min of 5v5 ice-time together:
When the goal rate is as high as it is with a pair like this on the ice, it means they are making high volumes of OZ possession-driving plays. This helps the forwards maintain OZ possession, generate chances, wear teams down, and ultimately score more goals! And when you have a skater as dynamic and shifty as Luke is, paired with a guy who funnels pucks to the net as dangerously as Dougie does, it opens up passing and shooting lanes because the defending players simply can't keep track of everyone. That's why they also already boast elite SAT and Unblocked SAT rates as a pair this season. This duo has the ability to become an electric duo threat from the point for NJD — I can't wait to see them in action, potentially for an entire game tonight!
It goes without saying how significant a Jack return this week would be for the Devils, especially before Saturday's game vs. NYR. Since Jack's injury, the team's scoring rates, as a whole, have gone down tremendously in the past four games, that being in the absence of both Jack and Nico. NJD's Goals/GP rate is down from the #2 HIGHEST rate in the NHL through the first nine games (4.22 G/GP) to the T#4 LOWEST rate (2.50 G/GP); nearly a 41% decrease in team scoring!
In the second period alone, NJD has gone from a +9 differential in their first nine (their best period as a team) to a -2 differential over the past four games. For me, that speaks volumes to Jack’s ability to exploit teams in the period of the long change. Before his injury, Jack was leading all NHL skaters in OZ Possession time/GP with a 1:21 AVG.
So, yes, this dramatic drop-off in scoring over the past four games shows exactly why we’ve mentioned Jack’s name in the same sentence as the Hart trophy this year. His dominance with the puck on his stick is irreplaceable in this league!
Timo, after a slow start (0 PTS first 3 GP), certainly experienced that same “Jack effect” mentioned above, right when he was moved to #86’s wing. Timo Time had taken off on the Toffoli - Hughes - Meier line:
When Jack went down, I think we all, including coach Ruff, expected some sort of regression in Timo’s game, especially considering his struggles before being moved to Jack’s wing. Nope! Timo clearly had other plans: since then, Timo has shown tons of swagger; he's skating with pace & confidence; getting to the hard areas; and bringing life to this offense when it’s been needed most.
Hopefully, Timo Time continues tonight in WPG with a three-game goal streak.
On the other hand, Devils fans, it's no secret that we've witnessed what has been a very slow start to the season for Ondrej Palat - and that has not yet changed - at least from a goal-scoring standpoint. This is now only the second time in his career that he has gone 13+ games without a goal to start a season, the other occasion being in TBL’s historically dominant 2018-19 season, where he finally got his first (and second!) goals of the campaign in his 23rd game.
Though he hasn’t buried one just yet, Pally has generated 8 high-danger (Grade A, inner-slot) scoring chances in the past four games, the third most on NJD in this span. That includes 3 HD chances alone in Friday’s game vs. WSH. So, Pally is doing the right things, he just hasn’t been able to convert yet. I see tonight as a perfect opportunity for him to finally get on the board with his first goal of the season, as it appears that he has loved playing on the Canada Life Centre ice in WPG throughout his career…
As for our broadcast, tonight’s game is an 8 PM ET start, meaning Erika and I will get things started on the pregame show starting at 7:30 PM ET. We’ll dive deeper into the need for offensive execution, Pally looking for his first, and Timo Time.
-Sal
