DEVILS vs WILD | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #9

Hey, everyone!

Great to see the Devils end October on a high note on Sunday, heading into this four-game Central Division road trip! As I discussed in the Pre-Scout going into the Buffalo game, the Devils needed to bank at least three of four points from those last two home games to finish out the month. Mission accomplished, they got all four. Their road trip will start with another meeting with the Wild, who the Devils beat on Sunday for the first time since Feb. 15, 2019. And yes, the Devils finally scored first! After a relatively slow start to the season, NJD have now won four of their last five, and are going into November with two consecutive wins. Their next challenge is playing above .500 through their next eight games, as six of them will be on the road.The Devils' power play has been just as dominant as initially advertised. After going two for three Sunday on two beautiful, east-west, tic-tac-toe goals, and boosting their top-ranked PP to 42.4%, it got me thinking: how does this eight-game sample size compare to the Oilers' first eight games last season? As stated in the graphic below, EDM ended the ’22-’23 regular season clicking at a 32.4% PP success rate on the year, the highest in NHL history.

Based on my findings, the Devils are right on track with the 2022-23 Oilers. In fact, they have actually been better in some areas.Now, there's never a scenario within the first 10 games of a season where I won't mention that stats like these are in a 'small sample size.' However, the Devils 1A-1B units, as of now, have been elite in the same areas that the historically good Oilers' PP were last season, led by #97 & #29. When it comes to the elite passing on display between both units (see OZ Passing % above), I've talked about the way the Devils are able to zip the puck around without dusting it off; it’s on their stick off their stick; tape-to-tape to the high-danger areas. For me, what makes those qualities so dangerous for other teams' PKs is NJD's east-west puck movement and their ability to seamlessly fire passes to the slot to create chances, as we saw in both PPGs vs. MIN Sunday and so often this season. To break this down more, when you can move the puck like this, you will catch a PK unit rotating between their defensive structural positioning; hence this is when the passing lanes are open. If you dust the puck off a few seconds before passing it again, the PK would have rotated back into their defensive structure. In terms of east-west passing, the Devils' 87.5% efficiencies are not far off from the Oilers' 90.9% from last season through their first eight contests, and neither is their 50.7% pass-to-the-slot completion rate compared to the Oilers 63% in their sample. This last stat shows there is even still some room for improvement in this area... Crazy.

I'm not saying the Devils have to go break the Oilers' record set last season, but this process tells me their #1 ranked PP is 100% sustainable, even if it doesn't end the season over 32.4%. To wrap up this section, I have to give credit to associate coach Travis Green and the rest of the coaching staff for the tremendous improvements we are seeing year over year. Last season, it took the Devils 22 games to score their 14th PP goal. They scored multiple PP goals on only four separate occasions. Eight games into this season, the Devils have already scored their 14th PP goal and have multiple PP goals in five different games. Just incredible.Now, I want to preface this in the same way that Jack, Luke, and Quinn all would: “Hey, we are only eight games into a long, 82-game season.” However, with Jack leading the NHL in points with 18 PTS in 8 GP; Luke having the third-highest rookie skater PTS/GP rate (as a defenseman) with 6 PTS in 8 GP; and Quinn tied for the most points among defensemen (11 PTS in 9 GP) & leading the league with a +11…. There's something that needs to be said about potentially one of the most intriguing and fun award storylines in recent history: Jack (Hart & Art), Luke (Calder), and Quinn (Norris).

As for Jack in his hunt for the Art and Hart, I discussed the PP’s importance in his race for these extremely prestigious awards during Sunday’s pregame show. The trend below is no coincidence. The PP is going to be the biggest dictator as to whether an achievement of this nature is in the realm of possibilities for Jack, especially with the influx of superstar talent in the league currently. The last five Art Ross Trophy winners also finished #1 in the NHL for PP Points. As for winning the Hart Trophy, if you don’t score 60 goals in a season (Matthews), or literally put your team on your back and carry them into the playoffs (Hall), you better lead the league in PP points!Now, is Jack’s 102.5 PP-point pace sustainable? Of course not. But, if the PP can remain executing at an elite rate as I discussed above, Jack will certainly give McDavid specifically (who has returned after missing two games due to injury) a run for his money.As for tonight's game vs. MIN, the Devils are going to need to bring the same hunger and commitment to special teams that they had Sunday, as Captain Nico did not travel with the team. Starting at 7:30, Erika and I will discuss the Devils continuing to be road warriors, Toffoli & Bratt, and the development of NJD's young blueliners.
-Sal