SABRES vs DEVILS | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #19

Hey everyone,

I was very surprised, and, quite frankly, even speechless at first, as many of you saw during the first intermission report, that the Devils came out so flat yesterday after such a poor performance in Detroit. They were in desperate need of a win, and their start did not reflect that in the slightest bit. They have now conceded the first goal in a league-high 15 of 18 games. Furthermore, the Devils are not in a position where they can consistently have mental lapses; miss assignments; fail to have proper coverage off the rush; and also have a lack of time management game after game. They continue to find themselves in a hole, chasing game after game after shooting themselves in the foot by making costly mistakes right from the get-go. Hopefully, the urgency level we see from them tonight reflects where they are in the standings, as tonight’s game vs. BUF is undeniably another must-win and a gut check for this team. One of the more intriguing lineup decisions in yesterday’s game was the utilization of Brendan Smith at forward while maintaining him at D on the PK. For me, it’s his work on the PK so far this season that has earned coach Ruff’s trust, finding ways to keep him in the lineup every game. Of the 138 skaters who have played 40+ min on the PK this season, only one other player, and defensemen (that being LAK’s Drew Doughty), have yet to concede a single goal when on the ice killing penalties. Impressive!
Whether he’s back in that left-wing spot or not tonight remains to be seen, but Ruff commenting postgame that the fourth line “created something good every shift" is a pretty good indicator that he is not afraid to repeat this plan, especially if Captain Nico misses another game.
On another positive note, NJD#40, Schmeedo, came up big on a few occasions to keep the Devils in a one-goal game, and, most notably, on Gaudreau’s breakaway opportunity that he stopped in the heart of the third period. With no morning skate today, we will wait and see closer to pregame warmups who the starting goalie is tonight, but it wouldn’t entirely shock me if coach Ruff gave Akira another nod for the second half of the back-to-back set. But, chances are it will be Vitek.Another question mark that Coach Ruff will address is whether the Captain will return in this one. We can only hope that Nico, being a game-time decision, is feeling rested and ready to go. To this point in his recovery process, he and the Devils’ staff have done an excellent job managing and prioritizing his health; rushing him back for the sake of the team is not in their best interest. With that being said, the team certainly needs and misses him as they are now 4-7-0 in the 11 GP with him out of the lineup. His presence and leadership both in the room and on the ice is irreplaceable and can not be understated.

As for NJD’s opponent tonight, there’ll be nothing unfamiliar on the other side of the ice at Prudential Center, as the Devils took the first meeting with the Sabres 5-4 in regulation back on Oct. 27. That was the night that Nico left injured after taking three tough blows, one to the head area on the Clifton hit. So, hopefully, BUF’s two trips to Newark book-ends Nico’s injury timeline. Nonetheless, there’s no denying that, while Nico’s injury was an unfortunate and scary set of circumstances, it’s a necessity that he makes a conservative effort to realize that no one is passing on the opportunity to finish him. I talked about the situation in this Pre-Scout for the following game, but Nico taking a step back from trying to win 100% of puck battles could go a long way for his health moving forward. Yes, this is much easier said than done, but, hopefully, this is something that he remains cognizant of.The Devils have another manageable task at hand tonight, KNOCK ON WOOD!!!, hosting the Buffalo Sabres (9-9-2), but there are some aspects of this matchup I consider “dangerous” again from the Devils' perspective. Yes, BUF has lost their superstar threat, Tage Thompson, who is coming off a 47-goal season, but they have kept things afloat for the time being, going 2-1-1 in 4 GP without him in the lineup.

Now, I first want to highlight BUF’s Penalty Kill, which has seen outstanding improvement over the last 5 GP. Ushered by 2006 STL first overall pick Erik Johnson, who has the second most PK TOI in the league (80:09) this year, BUF's #7 ranked PK has seen over a 55% decrease in PP Goals Against per 2 minutes across the last 5 GP. What does this mean for the Devils? Well, over NJD’s last 5 themselves, they’ve drawn just 2 penalties per game; a 41% decrease from the first 13 games. NJD’s conversion rate per 2 min is also down nearly 29%. Unfortunately, the Devils have only scored 1 PPG in their last 4 games, yikes!

Most importantly, the Devils have scored a league-high 38.3% of their total goals this season on the PP, and with the PP not firing on all cylinders, the Devils have just one goal in the past two games. Yesterday was the first time CBJ won a game when scoring two or fewer goals in a game since February of 2022. Goals are not coming easy for the Devils right now either, so, I’m certainly worried about this BUF's PK further frustrating the Devils, regardless if they’re limited in PP opportunities again or not.BUF's PP has also stepped up in the last few games, scoring in each of the last 3 games. This is definitely surprising considering Tage scored 31.7% (20/63) of the team’s PPGs last season. Interestingly, though, their even-strength offense has struggled mightily in their first 20 GP of the season. I was definitely not expecting to see BUF in the bottom 5-10 of the league in almost every offensive category at this point in the season! Remember, they scored 293 goals last year, good for the #3 most in the NHL.

Their defense, on the other hand, has been about league average. This group is strong in defending the forecheck and box out very well in front of the net, only conceding 1.7 rebound chances/GP. So, if the Devils crash the net, it could be hard to find those second-chance opportunities tonight.

Lastly, the Devils may have dodged a bullet here with the Sabres likely resting UPL for the second half of their own back-to-back (3-2 regulation W in PIT last night). As shown in the graphic, UPL has been exceptional and is an early standout when it comes to the exclusive club of very impressive goaltenders in the NHL this season. Levi, tonight’s projected starter, faced the Devils in his sixth career start back on April 11 last season in the Devils' final home game of the regular season. Levi allowed 4 goals on 28 shots in that one, and the Devils put an end to the Levi-led BUF must-win-game stretch in order to hang in the Eastern wildcard race.HUGE game tonight against a struggling young goaltender; don’t make it an easy night for him!
-Sal