SABRES vs DEVILS | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #7

Hey everyone,

After a frustrating effort and loss to the Capitals on Wednesday (no sugar-coating it), tonight's game will tell us a lot about the maturity and growth of this Devils team. Yes, I did talk about giving the start of the Devils' season "Time to Breathe," but nobody expected to see this many inconsistent efforts and breakdowns already begin to pile up. To be frank, the last thing the Devils can afford to do is close out October with anything less than three of the remaining four points on home ice. After tonight's game vs. BUF and Sunday's game vs. MIN, the Devils have a grueling 4-game central division road trip next week staring them down, as they'll clash with MIN, STL, CHI, & COL, all in six nights. No doubt about it, the schedule is not getting any friendlier. The Devils are going to need to start banking these points at home.

When it comes to starting on time, the first goal tonight appears to be a good indicator of how this game might go. So far through seven contests, when the Sabres score first, they are 3-0-0. On the other hand, they've gone 0-4-0 in matches their opponent has scored first, meaning they haven't mounted a comeback to date. Either way, Buffalo is not a team you can look past, and if there was ever a game where the Devils needed to get their first, first goal of a game, tonight against Buffalo would be that game. Based on how the Capitals game went, there should be desperation, a high level of competition, and energy from the drop of the puck. There are no excuses for another rough start at home.The biggest Devils' storyline through six games is not a secret — Jack Hughes' performance has been outstanding. His 17 points are now the most through the first six games of a season in franchise history, and the most in the NHL since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 & Wayne Gretzky in 1993-1994. It is truly amazing that Jack is doing something comparable to two of the best players EVER to play the game! A five-point night tonight would tie Mario for the most points in the history of the game (22 points) through seven games. Crazy...

For me, though, the fact that 11 of Jack's 13 assists have been primary is just as astonishing as this stat tells me that there is no reason to expect a significant amount of regression in his production. As a whole, NJD#86 is controlling games unlike any other player in the league this season, both in transition and in the OZ. Jack's 17 rush chances and 1:26 average OZ possession time per game rank him #1 among NHL skaters in each category. Hughes now has 116 points (47 goals, 69 assists) in his last 82 regular season games played.

Now, let's talk about his linemate, Toffoli, who is, as Jack would say, "on a heater." Despite going his first three games in a Devils uniform without a goal, Toffoli's ability to generate a high volume of quality scoring chances — specifically from the slot — on Hughes' wing made it evident that the goals would come. Now, coach Ruff is being rewarded for keeping this duo together through those initial line changes over the past several weeks, as all it took was his first goal (scored against NYI) for the floodgates to open. After the hat trick in Montreal, followed the next day with a two-goal night vs. WSH, Toffoli is now up to six goals in the past three games. Incredible! If anyone deserved that hat trick in Montreal, it was absolutely Toffs.

What is also eye-opening about Ruff's utilization of Toffoli is the amount of shifts he starts in the OZ. Among all NHL skaters with 80+ min TOI this season, no player has a higher OZ-start percentage than Tyler Toffoli (94.74%), and #3 in this category is his centerman, Jack Hughes (88.57%). Toffoli also ranks #1 in the NHL in SAT% (176-66), scoring chances % (104-32), and is #5 in slot shots per game (3.17).

Of all forward lines with 30+ min 5v5 TOI, this Toffoli - Hughes - Meier line is currently ranked #8 in GF/60 (6.11 Goals For per 60 min of 5v5 play). With Timo getting his first goal of the season vs. WSH, in addition to tallying four assists in three games on this line, the question is, are we now looking at Toffoli Time AND Timo Time on Hughes' wings?

If so, the trio will have to stay hot against Buffalo's projected starter, Eric Comrie (see goaltending Pre-Scout graphic at the bottom). Does this name sound familiar at all, Devils fans? If it does, it's because Comrie picked up a 5-3 win in his one and only game in a Devils uniform, back on Jan. 31, 2021, against these very same Buffalo Sabres. That win was his one and only game in a Devils uniform. Now, that's a true Devils legend!

For the Devils, Vanecek was in the starter's net this morning, so he should get the start against a Buffalo team that he has an 8-2-1 record and .925 SV% against in 11 career GP. Furthermore, he and the Devils will be rocking the black "Jersey Jersey" for the first time this season. Apparently, VV loves this jersey, because he posted a 5-1 record, .930 SV%, and two shutouts in his 6 GP wearing it last season. This game against Buffalo has Vitek's name written ALL over it!!!The reality is, Devils fans, that as thrilling as that top line has been (and should continue to be tonight vs. BUF), the Devils as a group are going to need to clean things up and be a lot better at home. Last season, the Devils had a .634 PTS% (24-13-4) at the Rock, compared to their .732 PTS% (28-9-4) on the road, and that trend is only continuing this season with the team struggling to win games at home (1-2-1 at home; 2-0-0 on the road). Erika and I will dive deep into those Devils' troubles at Prudential Center, the play of #73, #28, & #13, as well as keys to NJD cleaning up their game in our pregame show. It all starts at 6:30 PM.
-Sal