SAL'S QUICK HITS: REACHED THE HALFWAY POINT

January 03, 2025

Bryce Salvador



Here are my quick hits following Game 41 vs. LAK, heading into the start of the second half of the season today in SJS:

Hey, everyone!

Seeing that we’ve now reached the halfway point of the season, Rachel and I plan to assess a few topics through the first 41 GP during this afternoon’s pregame show. Below is a quick preview and synopsis of some of the graphics we’ll show — Be sure to tune in at 3:30 p.m. EST as we break it all down in more detail with some video examples!



41-Game Comparison
Comparing some of the overall numbers from this point to the 41-game mark of the Devils’ historic 2022-23 season, it’s now fair for everyone to conclude that last season’s catastrophic nosedive was a “one-off,” and we can all turn our attention back to what the team did two seasons ago as the measuring point for this “winning window” that the Devils have entered. Yes, I know it can be easy to overlook certain things based on how things have gone over the last few games, but make no mistake, this team has the ability to go much deeper in the playoffs this season, mainly due to the way they play on BOTH sides of the puck, which I’ll get into shortly.

Team Offense
Now, usually, I'd look at the fact the Devils are scoring at the 10th-highest rate, despite being expected to score at the 4th-highest rate, and would say they need to start executing on their chances in the second half of the season. However, I do want to be mindful of how good opposing goaltenders have been in their wins against the Devils this season, especially since Nov. 1 (see second graphic below). Not that it should be an excuse for the lack of finishing at times (and yes, in the recent stretch!), but the goaltending is a factor, and for the Devils to still be scoring at a top-10 rate tells me the scoring is not at all an alarming issue.

For me, what's been most promising in the first half of the season for the Devils from an offensive standpoint is their ability to get inside to the blue paint, establish a consistent presence at the net front, and score off deflected pucks, screened shots, rebounds, and second chances at an elite rate. Bringing in guys like Noesen (Best in the biz) and Cotter (Cotts of energy) has helped make this team so dangerous offensively because they've evolved into a team that can score in many different ways and have a "B-Game." Yes, you still want to see the Devils play to their identity as that dominant, high-flying team off the rush we all know and love, but with guys like Noesen, Cotts, Nico, Timo, Haula, and Pally giving them another element - again, it’s allowing them to win games with their “B-Game,” which we’ve seen them do so often already this season. 


Team Defense
As seen in the graphic below, the Devils are conceding the 3rd fewest goals per game entering today, and a key reason for that is because of how hard it’s been for opponents to solve their tight, sound defensive structure. Once again, I give lots of credit to AC Ryan McGill, who is now halfway through his third season in his role with the Devils, for getting his team to believe in this structure and execute it at a level that has frustrated just about every team they’ve faced. Mainly, an area of strength has been the Devils’ effectiveness in shutting teams down in the NZ and denying entry at their blue line. Then, what’s been equally important and impressive is that when teams are able to establish OZ possession, the Devils are smothering the puck carrier and ending plays fast, hard, and decisively with their sticks. This is why they’re inside the top 10 in a couple of areas not shown on this graphic, that being their rates of chances AG off the cycle and forecheck this season. If you were to go back to the 2022-23 season, the Devils ranked 23rd in chances AG off the cycle and 30th in Slot SATs AG off of forechecking plays. The Devils have not had this level of buy-in from all four FW lines and all six D in a very long time, and I believe it will be conducive to some more success come springtime!

Goaltending                

Lastly, here’s a quick look at the goaltending through 41 GP. Since Oct. 27, Marky has been outstanding, posting a 16-4-1 record, .921 Sv%, 1.83 GAA, and 3 shutouts, establishing himself as the true 1A and taking home the NHL’s December 3rd star of the month in the process. I’m expecting that ball to keep rolling today, assuming Marky gets the start!

Now, with Allen still winless in his last five (0-5-0), I’m looking for some more goal support in front of him in his next start to get him back in the W column for the first time since Nov. 23. Look, in each of Allen’s last four starts, the team has either been shutout or scored only two goals in front of him. Not good enough! 

Looking at the bigger picture, it’s been relieving to watch the Devils finally have a true tandem back there that gives them a chance on any given night. In addition to that, as I break down in the clip below, this tandem’s elite ability to stop dump-ins and make a successful first play with the puck has given the Devils a significant advantage in preventing teams from establishing possession off dump-in plays and has also allowed the Devils to exit their DZ cleanly at a top 5 rate 5on5. As a former defenseman, I can’t say enough about how far it goes for you when your goaltenders can play the puck like these two guys can!

Get Back in the W Column 
Alright, Devils fans, let’s look ahead to the second half of this season, which needs to start with 2 PTS today against a San Jose Sharks team that already shut the Devils out this season and is coming off a gutsy defensive effort that they had to close out a 2-1 W over the TBL on Thursday night. The Devils are going to have to bring their A-Game right from opening puck drop tonight to avoid a fourth-straight regulation loss for the first time in over two calendar years!


Starts With the PP
The power play has been ice cold lately, clicking at 12.5% (4/32) over the last 13 GP, with three of those four goals coming in the NYR home game alone. As I talk about in the clip below, the PP needs to start to make an impact again because, as we're seeing in this recent stretch of games, a team’s success on the PP is generally parallel to that of 5v5 and, ultimately, in their results. No, it’s no coincidence that the Devils have scored just 4 total goals over this three-game losing streak and have guys like Jack (4 Games), Noesen (4 Games) Bratter (7 Games), and Dougie (13 Games) all on extended goalless streaks. The PP needs to find life again today and get the overall offensive production humming again!

Be sure to tune in this afternoon as Rachel and I recap the LAK game, break down the first half of the season as well as some video examples, and show some of the skaters’ individual numbers through 41 games. It all starts at 3:30 p.m. on MSGSN!

Let’s Go Devils!
-Sal



Here are some graphics from Wednesday night’s broadcast!



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