ISLANDERS vs DEVILS | PRE-SCOUT | GAME #20

Hey Devils Fans,

Finally! I have many positives to discuss as we get set for tonight’s game.

The Devils’ performance on Saturday was by far their best of the season, and in no coincidence, it came in the longly-anticipated return of the Captain!The one and only word to accurately describe Nico's importance to the team, both on and off the ice, is, "invaluable."
My message prior to the opening puck drop was that the Devils would need to carry over the same effort and intensity they brought during the third period vs. CBJ, despite not scoring, to get back in the W column vs. BUF. The Devils came out and did exactly that, except, this time, they were able to execute. The 7-2 final on Saturday speaks for itself, but, overall, the last four periods for the Devils have been nothing short of pure domination. To see them maintain this level of play for 80 straight minutes has been remarkable, and, most importantly, if they continue to build upon this stretch of periods, it can galvanize this group at a time when they need to make up some ground in the standings.With the team finally re-discovering its "Devils' brand of hockey" in the last four periods of play, it should serve as a catalyst moving forward into their three massive games this week. Starting with tonight’s game vs. NYI, the Devils have two divisional opponents staring them down, both ahead of them in the standings (NYI by 3 PTS & PHI by 4 PTS). Then, they'll take on a struggling SJS squad (4-15-2) Friday night. Hopefully, this effort can continue to some extent, as Erika and I have talked immensely about how important this stretch of five games is (starting with DET back on November 22). I would love to see the Devils take advantage of the three games this week that I would deem “very winnable."So, yes, it was awesome to see the Devils pick up where they left off from the third period vs. CBJ Friday, but, it all starts with the start, and you could not have asked for a better one from NJD. The Devils came out and took a 4-0 lead, dominated the Shots 18-3; Slot Shots 10-1; and HD Chances 8-0.And this first-period explosion was exactly what the doctor prescribed for this team. It is no secret that the Devils’ starts and first periods through the first 18 games had not been good enough going into that game. This is all something I’ll dive into during tonight’s pregame show, but hopefully, this is the start of that trend heading in the other direction, as Saturday’s game was only the second time this season that the Devils scored the first goal of a game on home ice. Nothing would be better for this team than if they started on time tonight for the second straight game and began to end this long-term issue of chasing games.

You can only get away with being "the comeback kids” for so long!There’s no doubt that Luke Hughes and Alex Holtz each played one of the best all-around games of their young careers on Saturday. What an incredible performance from these guys, with Luke netting a goal and an assist and Holtzy sniping the Devils’ first goal for the second straight game. Points aside, the Devils owned the Sabres from start to finish when these two were on the ice during their respective individual shifts. These numbers are just crazy!The partnership between Luke and Colin Miller has been a seamless fit since Miller played his first regular season game as a Devil in PIT. I’ll show some video examples of their 5v5 play together during the pregame show, but, I’ve loved the way Luke’s two-way game has developed in this pairing, and that includes his comfortability in jumping up into plays on offense knowing a defensive-minded Miller has his back.When a guy as skilled as Luke, regardless of age, has the confidence to get involved in the rush and play a creative, free-flowing game, he almost becomes a fourth dynamic forward out there. It becomes hazardous for the opposition, and we saw that on full display vs. BUF, especially on the rush for Toffoli's second goal.

So, back to that Calder conversation for a second... with Luke sitting at 12 PTS in 19 GP, playing poised, confident hockey alongside Miller at 5v5, and still quarterbacking the #1 PP unit in the NHL... I think it is absolutely fair to say that Bedard has his work cut out for him if he wants to be the frontrunner!

As for Holtzy, well, he's ineligible for the Calder, but with Timo out injured the last 5 games, NJD#10 has stepped up and taken his game to the next level. Holtz has 3 goals in that span and is now riding nearly a 26-goal pace (!) on the season.

Pally, who has assisted on two of Holtz’s tallies while playing alongside him in the last 5 games, told me during pregame skate on Saturday that Holtz is “always in the right spot” and that he’s simply “trying to win some battles for him.” You just have to love the mentorship Pally provides for a guy like Holtz. The work ethic and attention to detail that he rubs off on Alex are certainly evident! As a duo, they've been noticeable on almost every shift, competing, winning those 50/50 contested puck battles, and executing at 5v5. They'll need to bring their A-game tonight against an NYI team that is notorious for giving teams a hard time in these categories.Now, let's talk about the Isles as a whole and what I expect the Devils to have at hand in this matchup. As expected, this isn't a team scoring a high rate of goals this season, finding the back of the net just over two-and-a-half times per game (#30) at even strength. The concern for the Devils tonight, however, is inner slot shots, with NYI generating 7.3 per GP (#10). As a result of the way the Isles are able to funnel pucks toward the net and utilize their size and physicality, they have the ability to create chances and make opponents pay in and around the netfront. This is an area the Devils will need to be committed to defending tonight.
Defensively, it’s a little surprising for me to see that they’re not defending very well so far in almost every area of play. They’re in the bottom third of the league in terms of rush chances against, defending the forecheck, and HD chances against, not protecting their slot very well through the first 20 games.

For me, their penalty kill struggles, like their defensive play at even strength, stand out as another major concern and surprise, as NYI has been inside the top 10 of PK% in each of the past 3 seasons. Again, not protecting their slot very well, conceding a high volume of slot shots per game. Even though they’re conceding roughly the same rate of HD chances against on the PK (about 27 per 60 min), their save percentage from these high-danger areas has seen regression and is one of, if not the main reason for their PK faltering this season. Remember, the Devils already had a FOUR-power play goal game (4/5) in their first meeting with the Islanders back on Oct. 20 at UBS, which left everyone flabbergasted! NYI has heavily relied on their goaltending for the past few years, and, rightfully so, but it can only get them so far if they continue to struggle in front of them. This tandem, led by the best in the business in Ilya Sorokin, has been phenomenal through 20 games and has kept them afloat at an 8-6-6 record despite not scoring goals or defending well.Hopefully, just like Elvis Merzlikins, Eric Comrie, and Devon Levi all dealt with in the past four periods at the Rock, tonight's starter will be tasked with a flurry of Devils’ chances to be on top of throughout the game, both at even strength and against the Devils' #1 ranked PP units once again.
-Sal